Introduction: Market Sentiment Remains Weak Amid Rising Volatility

The Indian equity market enters January 13, 2026 under visible pressure, with benchmark indices extending their losing streak and volatility staying elevated. Over the past few sessions, participants have witnessed persistent selling, breakdown of major supports, and weakening momentum indicators, highlighting a cautious and defensive trading environment.

According to market analyst Dhwani Patel, the broader structure suggests that traders must now shift focus from aggressive buying to capital protection, selective positioning, and short-term tactical trades, especially while volatility remains high and confidence is fragile.

This trade setup provides a complete pre-market outlook, including:

• Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty technical levels
• Options activity and open interest analysis
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR) insights
• Volatility outlook via India VIX
• Practical trading approach for the session

Nifty 50 Outlook: Bears Maintain Control

📍 Current Level: 23,432

The Nifty 50 continues to trade under heavy pressure, registering lower highs for the sixth consecutive session, clearly indicating a sustained downtrend.

🔺 Resistance Levels (Pivot-Based)

• 23,554
• 23,613
• 23,710

These levels are expected to act as sell-on-rise zones, where supply may re-emerge.

🔻 Support Levels (Pivot-Based)

• 23,361
• 23,302
• 23,205

A decisive breakdown below these supports could accelerate selling and open the door for deeper correction.

📉 Technical Structure & Indicators

• Formation of a bearish candlestick pattern on daily charts
• Index trading below all key moving averages, including the critical 200-day EMA
• Bollinger Bands position shows price hovering in the lower band, indicating persistent weakness
• RSI at 37.8, reflecting weak momentum and negative crossover
• MACD remains below zero, confirming bearish trend continuation

🔍 Interpretation:
Despite being moderately oversold, there are no strong reversal signals yet. Any bounce is likely to be corrective unless the index reclaims major resistance zones.

Bank Nifty Outlook: Oversold, But Trend Still Negative

📍 Current Level: 48,734

Bank Nifty has underperformed and continues to reflect severe stress in the banking space.

🔺 Resistance Levels (Pivot-Based)

• 49,275
• 49,476
• 49,801

🔻 Support Levels (Pivot-Based)

• 48,624
• 48,423
• 48,098

🔄 Fibonacci Levels

• Resistance: 50,000 and 50,865
• Support: 47,864 and 46,078

📉 Technical Structure & Indicators

• Formation of a long bearish candle, signalling strong selling pressure
• RSI at 28.50, placing the index in the oversold zone
• Price trading well below all major moving averages
• 10-day EMA below 200-day EMA, indicating structural weakness
• MACD remains negative

🔍 Interpretation:
While the oversold RSI hints at the possibility of a short-term bounce, the broader trend remains bearish. Any recovery should be treated with caution and used for risk reduction, not aggressive longs.

Nifty Options Data: Resistance Clearly Defined

📞 Call Options Analysis

• Highest Call OI: 24,500 (91.24 lakh contracts)
• Followed by: 24,000 and 23,800

📌 Significance:
These strikes represent strong overhead resistance, indicating that sellers expect the index to remain capped below these levels.

✍️ Call Writing Activity

• Heavy additions at 24,000, 23,800, and 23,500
• Minimal Call unwinding across the range

🔍 Conclusion:
Call writers remain confident, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Nifty Put Options Data: Support Shifting Lower

📥 Put Open Interest

• Highest Put OI: 22,500 (61.85 lakh contracts)
• Followed by: 23,000 and 23,500

✍️ Put Writing Activity

• Aggressive additions at 22,400
• Moderate buildup at 23,400 and 23,000

🔍 Conclusion:
The support base is gradually shifting lower, a bearish signal indicating traders are bracing for further downside.

Bank Nifty Options Data: Weak Confidence Among Bulls

📞 Call Side

• Maximum Call OI: 51,000
• Followed by: 50,000 and 50,500

Heavy Call writing near 49,000–50,000 suggests stiff resistance.

📥 Put Side

• Maximum Put OI: 46,000
• Strong writing near 45,500–46,500

🔍 Conclusion:
Despite oversold conditions, the options market reflects defensive positioning rather than confidence in a reversal.

Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Momentum Tilting Bearish

• Current PCR: 0.88
• Previous Session: 0.92

📌 A declining PCR indicates higher Call writing relative to Puts, reinforcing a bearish undertone.

As per Dhwani Patel, PCR below 1 during falling markets often confirms trend continuation rather than reversal.

India VIX: Elevated Risk Environment

• Current Level: 14.92
• Up 1.76%

📌 VIX remaining above 14 is considered unfavourable for bulls.

🔍 Implication:

• Higher volatility
• Sharp intraday swings
• Reduced holding comfort

Trading Strategy for January 13, 2026

✔️ What Traders Should Do

• Focus on risk-managed trades
• Prefer sell-on-rise setups
• Keep tight stop losses
• Trade smaller position sizes

❌ What Traders Should Avoid

• Blind dip buying
• Over-leveraging
• Overnight aggressive longs

According to Dhwani Patel, preserving capital during volatile corrective phases is more important than chasing returns.

Broader Market View

• Midcaps and smallcaps may continue to see selective selling
• Stock-specific action likely based on earnings expectations
• Defensive sectors may relatively outperform

Until indices reclaim key resistances, trend followers should stay cautious.

Short-Term Outlook Summary

Factor	Bias
Nifty Trend	Bearish
Bank Nifty	Weak / Oversold
Options Data	Defensive
PCR	Bearish
Volatility	Elevated

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. Is January 13, 2026 a good day for fresh long positions?

Not ideal. The broader trend is bearish, and fresh longs should be avoided unless confirmed reversal signals appear.

Q2. Can Bank Nifty bounce due to oversold RSI?

Yes, a short-term technical bounce is possible, but the larger trend remains weak.

Q3. What does PCR below 1 indicate?

It indicates higher Call writing, reflecting bearish sentiment among traders.

Q4. How does high India VIX affect trading?

High VIX increases intraday volatility and risk, making disciplined risk management essential.

Q5. What is the safest approach in current conditions?

Focus on capital preservation, short-term trades, and strict stop-loss discipline, as recommended by Dhwani Patel.

Disclaimer

This swing trading analysis is prepared by Dhwani Patel (SEBI Registered Research Analyst – INH200006608).
All information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice.
Trading in securities involves significant risk. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.