Introduction
The market enters October 16, 2025, with an optimistic tone as both Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty continue to trade above their key moving averages. The bullish momentum seen earlier this week seems to have extended further, supported by positive technical formations and improving market breadth.
In this Trade Setup for 16 October, dhwani patel, SEBI registered research analyst, breaks down the exact pivot and Fibonacci levels, technical formations, and 10 structured setups to help traders navigate today’s session with clarity and control.
⚙️ Setup 1 — Nifty 50: Key Resistance & Support Levels
Nifty Close: 25,324
- Resistance based on Pivot Points: 25,361, 25,410, 25,489
- Support based on Pivot Points: 25,204, 25,155, 25,077
Technical Outlook:
The Nifty 50 formed a long bullish candle with small upper and lower shadows — a strong indicator of buyer dominance. The index now trades well above all key moving averages, with both short- and medium-term averages sloping upward.
The RSI at 60.49 confirms strength, while the MACD maintains a bullish crossover with an expanding histogram. This combination supports a positive short-term outlook.
Interpretation:
- Sustaining above 25,361 could trigger moves toward 25,489 and beyond.
- Immediate support sits near 25,155–25,077; dips to this region may attract buyers.
For traders following a Nifty futures trading guide, the bias remains bullish with “buy-on-dips” setups favored until 25,155 holds.
⚙️ Setup 2 — Bank Nifty: Pivot & Fibonacci Levels
Bank Nifty Close: 56,800
- Resistance based on Pivot Points: 56,903, 57,004, 57,169
- Support based on Pivot Points: 56,574, 56,472, 56,307
- Resistance based on Fibonacci Retracement: 57,628, 58,735
- Support based on Fibonacci Retracement: 56,129, 55,639
Technical Outlook:
Bank Nifty rebounded strongly after a day of consolidation, forming a bullish candle that completed a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from July’s record high to the September low. The index now sits comfortably above all major moving averages, signaling sustained strength.
Both RSI and MACD show a positive bias, confirming momentum alignment with price structure.
Interpretation:
- Resistance is capped near 57,004–57,169; a breakout could take the index toward 57,628.
- Support rests near 56,472–56,307; a breach below this may invite mild profit booking.
This pattern reflects the characteristics of a continuation phase — ideal for index futures trading strategies India built around trend-following logic.
⚙️ Setup 3 — Derivatives & Option Chain Data
Nifty OI:
- Calls: Heavy at 25,500, 25,600, 25,700
- Puts: Concentrated near 25,200, 25,100
Bank Nifty OI:
- Calls: 57,000 and 57,500
- Puts: 56,500 and 56,000
Interpretation:
The options setup suggests a mild bullish bias, with put writers active near 25,200 on Nifty and 56,500 on Bank Nifty. Unless these supports break, the market is likely to maintain higher lows.
⚙️ Setup 4 — Market Sentiment & PCR
The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for Nifty hovers near 1.05 — balanced but tilted bullish.
An uptick beyond 1.2 may reflect overconfidence, while a dip below 0.9 could indicate hedging pressure.
Sentiment currently leans positive, supported by steady FII participation and range-bound VIX levels.
⚙️ Setup 5 — Volatility Index (India VIX)
India VIX remains subdued around 10.8, indicating stable risk appetite among traders.
However, with indices nearing upper resistance, sudden spikes in volatility can’t be ruled out.
“Low VIX gives confidence, but it’s also where traders often get complacent,”
says dhwani patel.
Use volatility compression as an opportunity for breakout setups, not comfort.
⚙️ Setup 6 — Sectoral Focus
- Banks & Financials: Continue to show leadership; Bank Nifty above 56,700 confirms momentum.
- IT Stocks: Minor profit booking likely after recent rallies.
- Metals & Energy: May stay volatile due to global commodity swings.
- Auto: Gradual strength as festive sentiment improves.
Strategy Tip: Rotate capital toward trending sectors — a core aspect of swing trading strategies India.
⚙️ Setup 7 — Technical Formations Recap
| Index | Candle Type | Trend Signal | Indicators | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | Long bullish candle | Sustained uptrend | RSI > 60, MACD bullish | Positive |
| Bank Nifty | Bullish candle, post-retracement | Trend continuation | RSI, MACD rising | Positive |
Both indices reflect healthy internal structure, confirming that dips remain buyable until lower supports are violated.
⚙️ Setup 8 — Global & Macro Influences
US and European markets closed mixed, while Asian peers opened stable. Crude prices stayed range-bound, and bond yields softened — both favorable for emerging markets.
These cues should keep Indian indices supported, provided no external shock emerges mid-session.
⚙️ Setup 9 — Intraday Playbook
| Index | Bullish Above | Bearish Below | Neutral Zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,361 | 25,155 | 25,200–25,300 |
| Bank Nifty | 57,004 | 56,472 | 56,600–56,900 |
Trading Plan:
- Long bias above breakout zones with volume confirmation.
- Short bias only if both indices close below support zones.
- Avoid mid-range entries — focus on edges and confirmations.
Risk discipline remains your edge; overconfidence is your enemy.
⚙️ Setup 10 — dhwani patel’s View
“Momentum remains aligned with trend. The chart structure is strong, and data supports continuation. But traders should protect profits and trail stops — markets reward preparation, not prediction.”
With both Nifty and Bank Nifty sustaining above key averages, the setup favors a steady upward bias with selective opportunities in large-cap banks and midcaps.
⚠️ Key Takeaways
- Nifty Support: 25,155–25,077
- Nifty Resistance: 25,410–25,489
- Bank Nifty Support: 56,472–56,307
- Bank Nifty Resistance: 57,004–57,169
- Bias: Positive, buy-on-dips with defined stop-loss
Final Thoughts
The Trade Setup for 16 October 2025 signals confidence with caution — the market trend remains intact, but traders must stay agile.
As dhwani patel reminds every morning —
“Your discipline decides your returns. The market only gives you what you deserve.”
Disclosure & Disclaimer: dhwani patel (SEBI Registration No. INH200008608) is a SEBI registered research analyst. This content is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Markets are volatile; always conduct independent analysis.
