NH is retracing for a Dip further to extend the bullish rally to the new ATH. The chart structure is a classic example of how stock consolidates and moves out to break and how previous resistance becomes support. After the breakout from a rectangular pattern, the stock rallied towards 1,300 odd levels and, at present, is undergoing a correction, which is forming a flag pattern. The flag is a short-term continuation pattern widely traded and observed by traders and short-term investors. This pattern allows entering an upward-trending stock at a reasonably favourable price with lower risk. The Volumes display classic behavior as they continue to deteriorate throughout the pattern, but a recent surge is seen as we observe a partial fill. A partial fill usually indicates the direction of the eventual breakout. The midterm 50 Days Moving average continues to slope up, indicating the overall trend is positive, while contraction of 20 and 50 MA indicates the stock has strong support in the zone of 1130 – 1150. Lastly, This level coincides with the previous Top of the rectangle pattern at the 1132 level. Hence, the previous resistance acts as a support, an inflection point. All this evidence suggests that short-term to mid-term investors and traders must keep a close watch on NH, which must be on your watchlist. We recommend a Buy on NH at 1180 – 1150 levels for an upside to 1280 and a further 1496 (0.75x of Pole). Stops for this position can be kept at 1120 on a closing basis; hence, the R: R is 2X and is much more favorable in the mid-term. Happy InvestingFinversify
The #Paytm Saga – When Geniuses failed
Paytm, the leading Fintech, has been a case for mass destruction despite as a product; it is no doubt that the Founder of Paytm, Vijay Shekhar Sharma’s view, was ahead of time. But interestingly, the stock has been eye candy for traders and investors who always look to pull the trigger on this stock. Be it short-term trading due to some event or news or long-term investing based on its future growth story as a significant player in the fintech space. It has been a dubious case. Cut to the chase: It is a case study for many and some simple logic (obviously, hindsight bias ). The basic rule/logic or brainstorming- What Happens when the major investor in a Fintech exists just a Year(Trading Days) from the share price listing? The stock was listed on 18 Nov 21, and Softbank trimmed its stake on 11 May 2023. Additionally, Softbank trimmed another 2%, which was completed on 24 January 2024! is just about time. “Are Jab Investor hi sure nahi hai to retail investors ko itna kyu pump kar rahe hai sab Buy karne ke liye??Look at the image below! BoFA, GS etc aur pata nahi kaun kaun! To add insult to injury, Warren Buffet, The Living God of Investing(Omaha) Exited the business with a 600 Cr Loss! Investors should ask – “To Phir, retail kyu buy kar rahe the!? Lastly, Sir Dr A Velumani, who created multi-billion dollar Thyrocare, is also stuck with 1400 Crore and lost. I admire him for his work, but this also shows that even genius failed in this whole saga. Anyhow. The comments from the RBI are serious. It is pretty apparent another major player will soon acquire the company. (Ambani-Adani) Remember – The fine line between short-term trader and long-term investor is – Stoploss.Finversify
Nifty50 Outlook
Nifty – The Upward momentum intact unless.. let’s be straight and come to the facts. 1 – Nifty has strong support at 22200. This is the previous all-time high, The Support trendline drawn from lows of 24-1-24 coincides with this level too. 2 – RSI divergence is quite obvious but this is a case of classic double divergence. Keep an Eye if RSI breaks the level of 50. 3 – ADX Well below 15 mark shows a sluggish sideways market, hence anyone ( the bull or bear) can capitalize on this. Though in an uptrend “Unless” the 22200 is taken out, it should be bulls.4 -Market breadth looks weak, not just deteriorating, cause the % of Stocks above key short and mid-term MA looks sliding down. Not a good sight in a bull market. We believe these levers are important and just by following this, we can at least understand if the market is going to continue to move upwards or if we are in for a short break. #stockmarketsindia, #nifty50, #stockmarketcrash Research DeskFinversify
CNXSMALLCAP & MIDCAP – Chart Analysis
So it all boils down to simple method for trend identification. A bullish rally setup which has been making higher high and higher lows has breached its previous higher low indicating we are in for some sideways to corrective phase. A new lower low indicate impending correction, but, till what levels? Another approach in technical analysis teaches us – “previous resistance become support and support become resistance”. Going forward, CNXSMALLCAP may correct towards lower levels of 13000 – 12100, which is a12-19% correction. It is located at its ATH of 2023 – 2022. We can see similar setup in CNXMIDCAP but below 12%, pain is much higher in terms of price. All we can be is to stay cautious. Be very selective in approaching stocks as they will move and rally but not in a frenzy which we have seen in past few months. Research DeskFinversify
Curefoods Gears Up for IPO Amidst Rapid Growth and Market Expansion
Curefoods, a cloud kitchen startup founded in 2020 by former Flipkart executive Ankit Nagori, is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) as it seeks to raise capital and expand its operations. The company is currently in discussions with investment banks and legal firms to manage the IPO process, with plans to raise between $300 million and $400 million through the offering. While the IPO is tentatively scheduled for the latter half of the fiscal year beginning in April 2025, the final size of the offering will depend on the extent of secondary share sales by existing investors. This move comes at a time when market interest in new-age tech-driven startups is on the rise, creating a favorable environment for companies looking to go public. Since its inception, Curefoods has rapidly grown into a major player in India’s cloud kitchen space, operating over 500 cloud kitchens and offline stores across 40 cities. The company has built a diverse portfolio of food brands catering to a variety of customer preferences, leveraging both organic growth and strategic acquisitions. It has aggressively expanded its business by acquiring well-known brands, including Frozen Bottle, and recently announced a deal to acquire Krispy Kreme’s operations in South and West India. Along with these acquisitions, Curefoods manages multiple food brands such as EatFit, CakeZone, Nomad Pizza, Sharief Bhai Biryani, and Frozen Bottle, creating a broad and diverse customer base across various food categories. The financial trajectory of Curefoods reflects significant growth, with its consolidated revenue for FY24 reaching ₹585 crore, marking a 53% increase compared to the previous fiscal year. This strong revenue growth aligns with the company’s long-term strategy of scaling its presence across India and strengthening its brand portfolio. According to company filings with the Registrar of Companies (ROC), Curefoods is projecting an annual revenue run-rate of approximately ₹1,000 crore by the end of FY25. However, despite substantial revenue gains, the company is yet to achieve profitability. Curefoods reported a consolidated loss of ₹172.6 crore in FY24, a significant improvement from the ₹342.7 crore loss recorded in the previous fiscal year. This represents a 49.64% reduction in net losses, indicating that the company is making progress in its efforts to improve financial efficiency. Alongside the reduction in losses, Curefoods reported a 53.17% increase in operating revenue, underscoring its ability to scale operations while improving financial stability. The startup has attracted investment from several high-profile venture capital firms, including Accel, Iron Pillar, and Chiratae Ventures. In March of the previous year, Curefoods secured INR 300 crore (approximately $36 million) in funding from Flipkart co-founder Binny Bansal’s Three State Ventures. This round included a combination of primary and secondary equity as well as debt financing, strengthening Curefoods’ financial position ahead of its public listing. The company’s ability to attract substantial investment from seasoned investors highlights its potential as a strong contender in the food-tech and cloud kitchen space, an industry that continues to experience high demand as consumer behavior shifts towards convenient, delivery-based dining experiences. Curefoods’ IPO plans align with a broader trend in India’s startup ecosystem, as several high-growth companies prepare to go public in 2025. At least 20 startups are expected to launch IPOs that year, reflecting a renewed investor interest in new-age technology-driven businesses. Some of the notable startups considering public listings in 2025 include Ather Energy, Fractal, ArisInfra, Ecom Express, Zepto, BlueStone, and Smartworks. Additionally, several other major companies such as InMobi, Lenskart, Groww, Zetwerk, OfBusiness, and Pine Labs are preparing for mega IPOs, signaling strong momentum in India’s public markets. Curefoods’ entry into the stock market is expected to draw significant attention from investors, particularly those looking for exposure to the rapidly expanding cloud kitchen and food-tech sector. With a strong portfolio of brands, strategic acquisitions, and a steadily improving financial position, the company is positioning itself for long-term success. However, as with any IPO, investors will closely evaluate key factors such as profitability timelines, market competition, and the overall sustainability of its business model before making investment decisions. While Curefoods’ growth trajectory is promising, the food industry remains competitive, requiring continuous innovation and efficient operational management to maintain its momentum in the evolving market. As the company gears up for its IPO, the market will be watching closely to see how Curefoods navigates the transition from a venture-backed startup to a publicly traded company. The success of the IPO will not only impact its own future but could also influence investor sentiment toward other upcoming startup listings. If Curefoods manages to execute its strategy effectively and demonstrate a clear path to profitability, it could pave the way for further investments in India’s burgeoning cloud kitchen and food delivery industry. With strong financial backing, a growing brand portfolio, and a market ripe for expansion, Curefoods is set to play a key role in shaping the future of India’s food-tech landscape. Disclaimer: This news is for educational purposes only. The securities and investments mentioned are not recommendations.
Hero Future Energies Eyes ₹3,500 Crore IPO Amid Global Expansion and Green Energy Push
Hero Future Energies (HFE), part of the Hero Group, is gearing up for a ₹3,500 crore initial public offering (IPO) to raise capital from public investors. The company is currently in discussions with potential underwriters, and four investment banks are expected to manage the offering. Legal counsel for the IPO is likely to be provided by Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas. The public offering will also serve as an opportunity for existing investors such as KKR and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to partially exit their stakes. The Munjal family remains the controlling shareholder of HFE, overseeing its strategic direction and expansion into renewable energy. HFE has established a significant presence in India, where most of its renewable power generation assets are concentrated. However, the company has been expanding internationally, with operations in the UK, Ukraine, Singapore, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Its official headquarters are based in the UK, where it is focusing on battery energy storage and behind-the-meter projects, which involve installing renewable energy generation units in buildings and homes. In Bangladesh, the company is engaged in solar energy projects tailored for the fisheries sector, while in Vietnam, it is actively developing rooftop solar installations. The company has broader plans to deepen its presence in Southeast Asia, capitalizing on the region’s growing demand for clean energy solutions. Additionally, HFE is exploring opportunities in the Middle East, considering joint ventures as a means to enter the market. In September 2024, Chairman Rahul Munjal shared the company’s ambitious plans at an industry event, revealing that HFE aims to invest $20 billion over the next six years to scale up its capacity by nearly 16 times. This investment will cover solar and wind energy projects, along with significant advancements in battery storage technology. As part of its growth strategy, HFE recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Karnataka government, committing ₹11,000 crore toward green projects, including hydrogen production. This initiative is expected to create approximately 3,000 jobs and significantly contribute to India’s renewable energy goals. The company also recently commissioned a 29 MWp solar project in Chitradurga, Karnataka, which is designed to supply clean energy to commercial and industrial customers. This project alone is set to produce 33 million energy units annually, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by over 31,000 tonnes. HFE currently operates 1.8 gigawatts of renewable energy generation assets in India, with projects spread across Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. In addition to its operational capacity, the company has a broader portfolio of 5.2 gigawatts, with many projects still under construction. Nearly 43% of the power generated by HFE’s operational plants is sold through contracts with the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), while the remaining energy is supplied directly to state distribution companies and captive customers, including the Hero Group itself. By leveraging both long-term power purchase agreements and direct industrial supply, the company ensures steady revenue streams and mitigates risks associated with fluctuations in market demand. Ahead of the IPO, HFE has engaged in a pre-IPO fundraising round with JP Morgan, aiming to secure $200 million in equity. This move is part of a broader financial strategy that combines internal resources, debt financing, and equity issuance to optimize its valuation post-IPO. The timing of HFE’s IPO aligns with India’s aggressive push to achieve 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, making the company an attractive investment prospect for those looking to capitalize on the country’s green energy transition. However, HFE will face strong competition from established players like Tata Power and Adani Green Energy, both of which have substantial footprints in the renewable energy sector. To differentiate itself, HFE is focusing on integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) for grid optimization and energy storage, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. Despite its strong growth trajectory, HFE will face challenges in executing its expansion plans. Navigating complex regulatory landscapes, securing approvals for large-scale projects, and managing global supply chain disruptions will be crucial factors influencing its success. The overall performance of the IPO will depend on investor sentiment toward clean energy investments, as well as HFE’s ability to position itself as a leader in the space. Given its track record in project execution and commitment to innovation, the company appears well-positioned for long-term success. A successful IPO could also encourage other renewable energy firms in India to consider public listings, further boosting investment in the sector. While the IPO presents a significant opportunity for investors, it is important to approach it with an understanding of the risks involved. The renewable energy sector, despite its potential for high growth, is still subject to policy changes, infrastructure challenges, and market fluctuations. Investors should evaluate the long-term viability of HFE’s business model, particularly its ability to sustain profitability while expanding aggressively. The transition to clean energy is inevitable, and companies like HFE are at the forefront of this shift. Whether the IPO meets its fundraising goals and attracts strong investor interest remains to be seen, but it certainly marks a pivotal moment for Hero Future Energies and the broader renewable energy landscape in India. Disclaimer: This news is for educational purposes only. The securities and investments mentioned are not recommendations.
Why Hasn’t MRF Split Its Stock Like Nestle India? A Deep Dive
On January 5, 2024, Nestle India announced a stock split in the ratio of 1:10. This meant that each share, previously priced at an astonishing ₹27,000, was converted into ten shares of ₹2,700 each. As a result, Nestle’s stock became more accessible to retail investors, increasing liquidity and potentially making the stock more attractive to a broader range of market participants. Stock splits are often undertaken to enhance liquidity by making shares more affordable, encouraging greater participation from investors, and ensuring efficient price discovery. Naturally, this raises an important question—why hasn’t MRF, one of India’s highest-priced stocks, considered a stock split? MRF’s stock is currently trading at around ₹1.3 lakh per share, making it out of reach for most retail investors. If MRF were to consider a split, what would be the possible scenarios? More importantly, does the company have any incentive to do so? Stock splits are generally announced in common ratios like 1:5, 1:10, or 1:20. Given MRF’s extremely high share price, it would require a significant split to make the stock more affordable. Currently, MRF’s share has a face value of ₹10. A 1:20 split would bring the face value down to ₹0.5, but since the face value cannot go below ₹1, this scenario is not feasible. A 1:10 split, however, would reduce the face value to ₹1, which is acceptable. This would bring the stock’s market price down to approximately ₹13,000 per share. However, this is still a high price for most retail investors. In many cases, stock splits lead to a rally in share prices due to increased demand, so the post-split price could be even higher than ₹13,000. Therefore, even after a 1:10 split, MRF shares would remain expensive, defeating the primary purpose of making the stock more accessible. Instead of a split, MRF could consider a bonus issue, where existing shareholders receive additional shares at no extra cost. For example, if MRF announced a 19:1 bonus issue, meaning shareholders would receive 19 additional shares for every share held, the equity share capital would increase from ₹4.2 crore to ₹84.8 crore. MRF has ample free reserves to support this, and such a move would divide the stock price by 20, bringing it down to ₹5,500 per share. While this is an improvement, it is still on the higher side for most retail investors. To make MRF shares truly affordable, an even bigger dilution would be required—perhaps a 1:39 or 1:49 bonus, which would mean issuing 40 or 50 shares for every existing share held. However, such a large-scale dilution is unprecedented in Indian markets. This brings us to the crucial question: Why hasn’t MRF already taken this step? One of the primary reasons companies opt for stock splits or bonus issues is to increase trading liquidity. More outstanding shares at a lower price attract a wider investor base, increasing trading activity and making price movements more efficient. But what if MRF doesn’t want its shares to be highly liquid? It is possible that MRF prefers a smaller base of serious long-term investors rather than attracting short-term traders. With a high price point, only well-capitalized investors are able to buy the stock, reducing speculative trading and ensuring that the stock’s market value remains closer to its intrinsic business value. A similar approach was taken by Warren Buffett with Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A shares currently trade at approximately $550,000 (~₹5 crore) per share, making them one of the most expensive stocks in the world. There have been persistent calls for a Berkshire stock split since the 1990s, when its per-share price first crossed $10,000. However, Warren Buffett has deliberately resisted splitting the stock to discourage speculative trading and attract only serious long-term investors. In the mid-1990s, a new problem emerged in the U.S. market—certain unit trust funds started mimicking Berkshire’s portfolio. Some of these funds only held Berkshire Hathaway stock and sold their own units against it. This led investors to believe that they were essentially investing in Berkshire at a more affordable price. Buffett knew that simply copying a portfolio does not result in similar performance. To counter this, Berkshire introduced a newer, lower-priced share class—Class B shares—which initially carried 1/30th of the voting rights of Class A shares. These Class B shares have since been split further, but Class A shares have never been split. Could MRF find itself in a similar situation? If an investment fund were to emerge that only buys MRF shares and sells its own units against it, retail investors could indirectly gain access to MRF stock without requiring a stock split. This would be similar to what happened with Berkshire Hathaway’s unit trust funds in the 1990s. If such a fund were to gain traction, MRF might consider introducing a lower-priced share class, similar to Berkshire’s Class B shares, rather than undertaking a stock split. But as of now, MRF has shown no indication that it plans to take any such step. While a stock split or bonus issue could make MRF shares more accessible and increase liquidity, the company does not seem to be in favor of such a move. Possible reasons include: Unless MRF sees a clear benefit in making its stock more affordable, it is unlikely to announce a stock split or bonus issue anytime soon. However, if a fund were to emerge that exclusively holds MRF shares, it could force the company to reconsider its stance—just as Berkshire Hathaway did in the 1990s. Until then, MRF will likely remain one of India’s most exclusive stocks, accessible only to a select group of well-capitalized investors.